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"The market's recession fears are overblown," said Scotty Anderson, senior economist for the San Francisco bank. "Thee U.S. economy will reveal incrediblee resiliencein 2007. "The decline in home prices hasn'r yet resulted in a decrease in consumer confidencdeand spending, or a general declinw of household wealth and it's unlikelyu to occur (this) year," he "The housing slowdown has been offset by strong stockj market wealth, so household wealth continued to grow." The bank's economists said most of the nation' s households have never been better off when it comess to wealth. 's chief investment strategist Jim Paulse said heanticipates U.S.
economic growth this year will clock inat 3.5 percenr based on expectations that the housing and auto markets will flatten. The bank already sees signs of recoverhy in thehousing market, with mortgages to finance home purchasesz (versus refinancings) up 15 percent since the beginning of November. John Conover, CEO of . in San echoed that observation, notinh that his bank is also seeinga pick-uo in purchase mortgages. "People are taking advantage of the weaker housing markeyt and low mortgage ratess to get into theBay Area's housinyg market," Conover said. But the optimistifc outlook has a downside for those countingy on a Fed rate cutanytimre soon.
"Lowering interest rates under currentt conditions is like throwing more fuel to an alreadyburnin fire," said Eugenio Aleman, a Wellsd Fargo senior economist. He also sees possible congressional moves to raisr the minimum wage and curb immigration addint to concerns about thelabor market. Anderson sees higheer prices ahead formost commodities. "Commodityy markets are going to go higher year with theweakert dollar," Paulsen said. "But oil is stilk overpriced in relation toother commodities." Industru Ventures, a San Francisco-based firm focused on acquiring venture capital investments in the secondary market, raiseds $105 million for its fourth fund.
The firm formed two co-investment partnerships with $15 million in committed capital. The latestg fundraising is a sign of the successa the firm has enjoyed investing in directventure portfolios, limitedd partnership interests and special-situation "The fund is capitalized by leadinv institutional limited partners in the United Europe and Asia," said Hans Swildens, principal and founder of Industryu Ventures. The firm did not name any of theinstitutional investors. "We are seeing more tail-end opportunities in the Swildens said ofthe firm's ability to find venturew investments in the secondary market.
Industry Ventures plans to invest its fourtb fund over four likely investing in 10 direcft portfolios and 20 partnership interests ranging in sizefrom $200,00p to $25 million each. The firm has alreadh committed $20 million of its fourthj fund tovarious transactions. Since its founding in Industry Ventures has invested in more than 10 direct portfoliosx and 15 limited partnership interests in the informatiohn technologyand health-care sectors.
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