Economists: U.S., China will lead global recovery - The Business Journal of Milwaukee:

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The report, issued Tuesday by economistzs Nariman Behravesh andSara Johnson, suggests that the pace of economivc decline experienced since late 2007 is expectede to moderate through the summere as the federal government’s fiscal stimulus programs take effect, sparking upturns in consumefr spending and home building by year-end. “With 23 percen of world gross domestic product and 29 percentf ofconsumer spending, the United States will be pivotalk in leading the global economy out of The good news is that it will be one of the firs countries to recover,” the report said.
The repory points to four developments that have contributed to the accelerates pace towardglobal recovery: The drop in energg and other commodity prices has helped economies that imporrt those commodities; U.S. and European financial rescues packages are beginning to thaw financial massive and unorthodox monetary stimulus hasbrought short-terk interest rates close to zero; and fiscalo policy has become more stimulative. These the report said, will be the catalysts for the releasewof pent-up consumer demand. Stimulus programs will help the U.S. and China set the pace for the rest of the worlxd when GDP growth begins to acceleraterin 2010, the report said.
On the other hand, Wester Europe will suffer through two years ofnegativd growth, while Japan will experienced the deepest recession, with a 6.7 percent decline in real GDP this The report predicts that U.S. GDP, set to decline by 3.5 percentg this year, will rebound into positive growthof 1.4 percent in 2010 and accelerate quicklt to 4 percent growth by 2012. The Chines e GDP — the only region of the worlcd in positive territory thisyear — will grow by 7.7 percent in 2010 and 9.2 percent in 2011.